The 2027 Mortgage Rate Forecast Is Out: What Waiting Costs San Antonio Buyers

This is the video I send buyers who are weighing whether to wait for a lower rate: why lower mortgage rates do not automatically mean lower prices.

On my channel: San Antonio's Housing Market Is Moving Wrong, and Here's Why It Doesn't Matter

The forecast, straight from the economists

Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group raised its outlook in mid-October 2026, projecting the 30-year fixed to average about 7.5% in every quarter of 2027 after about 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026. That is a sharp reversal from the roughly 6.7% it had been projecting not long ago. The MBA's October 11, 2026 forecast agrees on direction if not exact level: rates stay above 7% through 2027, and total mortgage originations are expected to fall about 5% next year. These forecasts get revised, sometimes sharply, and no one can promise a rate. What they do tell you is that the wait-for-the-market-to-fix-itself plan has no economist behind it right now.

The last two months, for context

The path to the forecast is already visible in the weekly numbers. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.76% the week of September 10, 2026, then climbed to 7.28% the week of October 1, touched 7.40% mid-month, and eased to 7.32% for the week ending October 22, all per Freddie Mac. San Antonio buyers went from planning on the high 6s to planning on the mid 7s in about six weeks. The forecast says the mid 7s are the planning number now, not a temporary one.

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The cost-of-waiting math on a San Antonio home

Run the payment at the rates in play. On a $300,000 loan, a 30-year fixed at 6.7%, the rate economists once projected, carries about $1,936 a month in principal and interest. At 7.5%, the new forecast average, the same loan carries about $2,097 a month. That is about $160 more per month and roughly $58,000 more in interest over 30 years, for the same house at the same price. At San Antonio's recent sales medians of roughly $299,000 to $315,000, that monthly difference moves a family's qualifying budget down a class of home. Buyers who can comfortably carry today's payment should think hard about why they are waiting for a better one.

What about waiting for prices to fall?

The other common wait is for prices, and forecasts do call for San Antonio values to drift down modestly over the next year, roughly 3% on Zillow's most recent 12-month projection, which is about $9,300 on a $300,000 home. Put that against the rate math: financed over 30 years at 7.5%, the $9,300 price dip is about $65 a month, while the rate gap alone runs about $160 a month, plus a year of rent while you wait. The interest rate, not the price drift, is what moves your payment, and nobody can promise the timing of either. The honest approach is to buy when the home, the payment, and your confidence line up, and to negotiate today's market from data instead of from hope.

The plan that actually works

None of this means rush. It means plan. Get pre-approved now so your rate is locked when the right home appears, shop with a payment target instead of a price target, and treat seller concessions, rate buydowns, and closing cost credits as part of the negotiation, because builders and sellers are offering them in this market. If your timeline allows, position your offer for the slower months ahead of the spring rush. Buyers who close this winter near 7.3% with seller help will not be regretting a rate they could not get.

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