Zillow Sees San Antonio Home Values Down 3.1% Over the Next Year: The Honest Read

San Antonio Housing Market 2026: What Buyers & Sellers Need to Know NOW More videos are on my channel .

First, the number everyone will quote

The -3.1% figure comes from Zillow's quarterly forecast revision, published July 29, 2026, which covers home values from mid-2026 through June 2027. It follows a string of downward revisions through the year: roughly -2.0% in February, -2.6% in April, -2.8% in May, -2.9% in June, and -3.1% in July. Zillow's Home Value Index for the San Antonio metro sat near $250,888, down about 2.1% from a year earlier. A separate government measure, the FHFA House Price Index for the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro, was roughly flat, down about 0.5% year over year in the second quarter of 2026. The trend is consistent even if the exact number differs by index: San Antonio values are drifting down, modestly and gradually, not crashing.

Why the index looks lower than the median you hear about

This is the confusion I hear most. Zillow's Home Value Index and the sales medians in SABOR's monthly reports are different rulers. The index blends estimated values for every home, including homes that have not sold, while SABOR's median reflects homes that actually closed in the month. That is why the index sits near $250,888 while recent sales medians run closer to $299,000 to $315,000. Neither number is wrong. They measure different slices, and knowing which slice you are looking at keeps a headline from spooking you.

Why the forecasts point down

The pieces are visible in the data this site has tracked all year: inventory has climbed to more than five months of supply, homes are taking around 82 days to sell, and buyers are closing at about 93% of list price. Add mortgage rates holding above 7% and the pool of qualified buyers shrinks, which pulls values down at the margins. None of that is a collapse signal. It is a normalization signal: the market is repricing the surge years of 2020 to 2022, and it is doing it slowly enough that buyers who need to move can still plan around it.

What 3.1% actually means in dollars

On a $300,000 home, a 3.1% decline is about $9,300, spread over twelve months. On a $400,000 home, it is about $12,400. Compare that with the rate side of the ledger: the 30-year fixed has swung from 6.76% to 7.40% and back to about 7.32% in the last seven weeks alone, which moves a monthly payment far more than the forecast price drift does. A buyer who waits twelve months for the price dip, and rents in the meantime, pays a year of rent on top of whatever the rate does. Timing the bottom is a gamble; buying when the payment fits is a plan.

What it means for sellers

For sellers, a declining-value forecast is a pricing instruction: price to today's comps, not to the peak, and make the home show better than the ones around it. In a market at roughly 82 days on market and about 93 cents on the dollar, the well-priced, well-presented home still sells in weeks, and the overpriced one collects dust. If your plan is to sell in 2027, decide the timeline now, price from current sold data in your neighborhood, and do not wait for a spring that the economists are not promising.

• What San Antonio sellers actually net
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The honest plan either way

Forecasts are tools, not verdicts, and this one gets revised every quarter. What it tells a buyer is to negotiate now while inventory is high, days on market are long, and builders are adding incentives. What it tells a seller is to price like the data says. What it tells everyone is that San Antonio remains a stable, affordable big metro, and the moves that work are the ones based on your numbers, your commute, and your timeline, not on a headline that will change by spring.

• The full market report page
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